The fans have spoken — and they want two new champions at UFC 334 tonight at Madison Square Garden. The experts are not so sure.
“"Despite this, fans sided with the underdog challengers for the two headliners, backing Hokit with 51.04% of the vote and Nunes with 51.37%."”
Bloody Elbow's fight-day fan polls closed with the underdog challengers ahead in both title fights, and by almost nothing. Josh Hokit took 51.04% of the heavyweight vote — 367 votes to Ciryl Gane's 352, a margin of 15 out of 719 cast. Amanda Nunes took 51.37% of the women's bantamweight vote — 131 to Kayla Harrison's 124, a margin of seven out of 255.
"Despite this, fans sided with the underdog challengers for the two headliners, backing Hokit with 51.04% of the vote and Nunes with 51.37%," Bloody Elbow's Kyle Dimond wrote, as the polls went down to the wire.
The experts split in the opposite direction — on one fight, at least.
MMA Junkie's 11-person staff panel — editors, writers, radio hosts and videographers — also backs Nunes over Harrison, 7-4. But on the main event it goes the other way, and decisively: Gane over Hokit, 9-2. Only Ken Hathaway and George Garcia picked Hokit; the other nine staffers picked the champion.
So the one fight where the fans and the experts directly disagree is the main event. The fans see Hokit, the unbeaten 10-0 challenger, dethroning Gane. The staff sees Gane, 14-2, keeping the heavyweight title. On the co-main, fans and staff agree: Nunes, the former champion and Harrison's former teammate, beats the champion.
The betting markets still side with the champions — for now. MMA Junkie's odds as of November 14 list Gane as a -205 favorite over Hokit (+170) and Harrison as a -170 favorite over Nunes (+145). The lines vary by book — DraftKings had Gane at -225 and Harrison at -166 on Saturday — and both favorites have drifted from their openers, when Gane and Harrison were each listed at -150.
Even MMA Junkie's own readers disagree with the Bloody Elbow polls. Its reader consensus picks Gane at 60% and Harrison at 59% — the favorites, on both fights.
That is what makes tonight's split so sharp. The fans voting in Bloody Elbow's polls want both belts to change hands. The staff panel wants one to change hands. The readers and the oddsmakers want neither to change hands. Somebody is going to be wrong before the night is over — and on the main event, the fans and the experts cannot both be right.
UFC 334 takes place tonight at Madison Square Garden in New York. The main card begins at 9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. PT on Paramount+, headlined by Gane vs. Hokit for the heavyweight title, with Harrison vs. Nunes for the women's bantamweight title as the co-main event.
