The pros are picking the underdog.
“I can never pick against Amanda.”
Four of the six professional fighters polled by BJPenn.com ahead of UFC 334 believe Amanda Nunes will beat Kayla Harrison on Saturday night at Madison Square Garden and reclaim the women's bantamweight title — even though the betting market makes Harrison a clear favorite.
Julian Erosa, Gillian Robertson, Mario Bautista and Modestas Bukauskas all picked Nunes. Dustin Jacoby and Terrance McKinney went the other way, backing the champion to defend her belt in the co-main event.
The split is striking because of how long Nunes has been away. Her last fight was UFC 289 on June 10, 2023, when she beat Irene Aldana by unanimous decision, laid both belts and her gloves on the canvas, and retired. Saturday will be 1,253 days later. Harrison, meanwhile, has not fought in 17 months — the longest layoff of her career — after neck surgery forced the postponement of a fight the two were first booked for in January.
The case for Nunes, as the pros made it, is built on three things: power, patience and the weight cut.
Erosa, a UFC featherweight, thinks the championship rounds belong to Nunes. "I think Nunes. She has less muscle than Harrison, and muscle takes oxygen, and I think Nunes wins in the later rounds."
Robertson, a UFC strawweight who has trained with Nunes for years, did not hide the connection — and did not hedge the pick. "Amanda. I've trained with and known her for a long time, so I might be bias. But I do think she is the greatest woman in combat sports, and I think Amanda won't be scared of Kayla's judo and will be aggressive on the feet with her striking."
Bautista, a UFC bantamweight, pointed at the scale. "I think Amanda Nunes gets the win. Kayla cuts a lot of weight, and I do worry about that with how hard Amanda hits."
Bukauskas, a UFC light heavyweight, kept it simple. "A very tough fight to pick. Kayla has been great in the UFC, but I can never pick against Amanda. Although she does have a layoff, I think she wins."
The two dissenters both see the same fight Harrison does: takedowns, control, and Nunes fading late.
Jacoby, a UFC light heavyweight, said: "This is a good fight. Amanda is coming back, so there are some questions, and she has the knockout power. But, I do think Kayla will get the win with her wrestling."
McKinney, a UFC lightweight, agreed: "I think Kayla Harrison wins. She will be able to take Amanda down, and Nunes will get tired as we have seen in the past. Kayla defends her belt."
The books side with Jacoby and McKinney — but not by as much as they once did. On FanDuel, Harrison is a -196 favorite and Nunes a +152 underdog, a price BJPenn, Action Network and RG.org all carried on November 10-11. The consensus across 18 sportsbooks tracked by UFCalendar sits close by, around Harrison -193 and Nunes +160. When the fight was first priced, Harrison was as short as -300 and Nunes as long as +247. The market has tightened steadily since, and the line has barely moved since the bout was first booked for January — the books, like the pros, are not sure what three and a half years away has done to Nunes, or what neck surgery has done to Harrison.
Harrison's side of that question is well documented. The two-time Olympic judo gold medalist was scheduled to face Nunes at UFC 324 in January, but pulled out with five herniated discs in her neck and underwent a two-level neck fusion. She won the title by submitting Julianna Peña at UFC 316, and Saturday is her first defense. Her record is 19-1 in MMA, 3-0 in the UFC.
Nunes is 23-5 in MMA, 16-2 in the UFC, a former champion in two divisions who left the sport holding both belts. She is not the only pro backing her to win it back. Caio Borralho, speaking to Stake this week, picked Nunes to stop Harrison inside two rounds. Sherdog's UFC 334 preview reached the same place, picking Nunes by second-round knockout.
None of that makes Nunes the favorite. It makes her the live underdog — the greatest women's fighter of all time, in the view of the pros who picked her, walking back into a title fight after 1,253 days, against a champion returning from surgery of her own. The pros split 4-2. The books say -196. On Saturday at Madison Square Garden, under Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit in the main event, one of them is wrong.
