Justin Gaethje believes Ilia Topuria has the skills to become champion again — but says the odds are now stacked against him. Speaking with Joe Rogan on episode 168 of the JRE MMA Show, Gaethje was asked whether Topuria could ever return to form after Gaethje handed him his first-ever loss in the main event of UFC Freedom 250 at the White House, winning the undisputed lightweight championship by corner stoppage after four rounds. Gaethje's answer was honest — and sobering. "The odds are f—— great against that right now," he said. "I hope he does [bounce back], and I know that he has the skill to be a champion again."
“"Before this, he was a guy that you couldn't get through. Once I showed people that all you gotta do is get through that, nobody's ever gonna go in there thinking that he's unbeatable now. That was his identity."”
THE FERGUSON PARALLEL
Then Gaethje drew the comparison that will follow Topuria for as long as he's fighting: Tony Ferguson. "Same thing with Tony Ferguson," Gaethje said. "I didn't break Tony Ferguson's confidence. I changed the perception of his opponents of him and that is a huge factor when you go in there. Who are you fighting? What are you afraid of?" Gaethje stopped Ferguson at UFC 249 in 2020 to claim interim lightweight gold, ending "El Cucuy's" 12-fight win streak in the process. Ferguson was never the same after that night — the loss started an eight-fight skid, seven more defeats followed, before he parted ways with the UFC in 2025. In Gaethje's view, the mechanism is the same. Topuria's greatest weapon was the belief that nobody could stop him. Once that belief is shattered, every opponent enters the cage with a different mindset. "Before this, he was a guy that you couldn't get through," Gaethje said. "That you couldn't push through, that you couldn't survive with. Once I showed people that all you gotta do is get through that, then nobody's ever gonna go in there thinking that he's unbeatable now. And that was his identity. That's gonna be such a tough task for him, to fight people that aren't scared of him."
TOPURIA'S SIDE OF IT
To his credit, Topuria has shown respect to Gaethje when reflecting on the loss — a far cry from the supreme confidence he carried into his first title defense, when he was certain he'd make quick work of "The Highlight." And Gaethje isn't rooting against him. He has stressed that he hopes Topuria comes back stronger and that he holds no ill will toward the former champion. He has also dismissed talk of an immediate rematch, making clear that Topuria would need to earn his way back. But the sport has seen this movie before. The first loss doesn't just change the record — it changes the room. Every future opponent of Ilia Topuria will now walk into the octagon knowing the unbeatable man can, in fact, be beaten. Did Gaethje break Topuria's identity — or is Ilia about to prove him wrong?
